ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said, “The slow and choppy climb off the bottom continued in October. Since hitting a low in January of this year, tonnage is up a total of 3%, plus the index is up sequentially in three of the last four months. The freight market has undoubtedly improved slowly over the year.”
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In October, the ATA advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index equaled 114.6 compared with 113.3 in September. Based on 2015 as 100, the index equaled the reading from the same month last year. Compared to 2018, in the bull market for truckload carriers, last month’s reading was 1% lower.
Unlike traditional spot market freight, the ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight based on surveys from its membership since the 1970s.
Market watch
All rates cited below exclude fuel surcharges, and load volume refers to loads moved unless otherwise noted.
This week, we focus on the Southeast freight market, incorporating Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia. Truckload volumes in the region typically increase from now through the end of May each year, consistent with the increase in building and construction in Spring and early Summer. Outbound truckload volumes at the start of December were 18% higher than last year, while available capacity was much tighter – spot rates were up 13% y/y, averaging $2.42/mile.
Georgia is the largest flatbed market in the region, reporting 16% higher volumes y/y and tighter capacity. In early December, spot rates for outbound loads in Georgia averaged $2.32/mile, 7% higher than last year. The Atlanta to Lakeland, FL, lane accounts for 15% of weekly loads moved; volumes on this lane are 44% higher than last year, while spot rates are $0.44/mile higher, averaging $2.46/mile.
Load-to-Truck Ratio
Last week, national flatbed load postings bounced back following the short workweek after Thanksgiving. Compared to last year, volumes were 3% higher post-Thanksgiving week. Meanwhile, carrier equipment postings decreased by 29% y/y, resulting in the flatbed load-to-truck increasing to 15.81, 45% higher than last year’s 10.94.
Spot rates
Last week, flatbed linehaul rates reversed the prior week’s gains, decreasing by just under a penny per mile to a national average of $1.97/mile. Spot rates are $0.07/mile higher than last year and $0.06/mile lower than in 2022 and remained identical to the three-month trailing average.
